Weekly Reports

2021 #49 (13.12.-17.12.)

The passive market and price fall of all primary agricultural products marked last week at Produktna berza. The total turnover was 1.375 tons. As the end of the year approaches, there has been a decrease in the activity of commodity exchange participants. The financial value amounted to 617.449,26 €.

Due to reduced demand from exporters and domestic processors, corn has maintained a downward trend. Apart from the domestic one, this trend was completely correlated to the international market as well. What characterized the price is the constant change from day to day, which basically followed the world’s trends. Good supply and falling prices were the cause of reduced activity for this grain purchase. On the first day in the week, the corn supply was at a price level of 221,11 €/t. The contract was concluded at 216,01 €/t, which is also this week’s weighted price. Compared to the previous comparative data, a decrease of 2,07% was recorded. What gives the right to the initial statement is the fact that the supply at the very end of the week was much lower (212,61 €/t, with free stock until January/February), but even such did not have an adequate response on the demand side. At this price change, the corn market is still on a downward trend, and this was the main reason for the withdrawal of customers. FOB prices were still unacceptable and are still in the zone of the unprofitability of the export calculation.

The fact that wheat is losing its market position is best shown by the fact that the price has dropped by 3.32% compared to the previous week, and thus the turnover has decreased. A very sharp drop in the prices of this grain was also recorded in Chicago due to the lack of competitiveness of American commodities, as well as sales by funds. Purchase and sale contracts, depending on the quality, are concluded from 259,38 to 266,18 €/t, with a clear tendency for the price to fall. The customer structure consisted mainly of merchants and millers. While on the other hand, the interest of exporters was not emphasized in the purchase. The weighted price was 263,12 €/t.

In the soybean market, last week only confirmed that a negative trend has been present for a long time. Weak demand and lower imports of this oilseed in the previous month influenced the formation of the domestic price. At the beginning of the week, it was traded at the price of 620,81 €/t, with the takeover of commodities during December, and at the end of the week, it was traded at the level of 617,41 €/t. It was traded exclusively without quality calculation. The average price was 619,54 €/t, which is a decrease of 0.34% to the previous comparative data. Despite these circumstances, soybeans still have the best market position on the primary agricultural products scene.

What worries agricultural producers were the prices and supply of nitrogen fertilizers. Russian UREA, granulated, packaging 500/1 was traded at 875,00 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #48 (06.12.-10.12.)

Reduced activity of commodity exchange participants and falling prices are current movements on the market at Produktna berza. The total turnover amounted to 4.131 tons, while a financial value amounted to 1.346.024,11 €. Compared to the previous period, the turnover decreased by 15,69%, while the financial value of traded commodities decreased by 13,44%.

The absence of exports and weak demand from domestic processors resulted in a lack of more intensive corn demand. Contracts were concluded in a price range from 212,61 to 221,12 €/t. At parity CPT, the price was 223,67 €/t. During the whole week, a downward trend of this cereal was noticed. The weighted price was 220,61 €/t, which is a decrease of 1,38%.

The price continued to fall for the second week in a row, on the wheat market. Wheat with a minimum of 12,5% protein for prompt delivery was traded at 272,14 €/t. The contract for January delivery was concluded at 267,89 €/t. At the end of the week, the complete absence of supply and demand at a lower price level than the realized ones did not result in the conclusion of a contract. Compared to the previous week, the wheat price decreased by 1,31%. A downward trend was also noticed on the international market.

Soybean, even in the period of passivity, finds its place on the market, which has been volatile in the last period. The low demand has led this oilseed to record a negative price trend of 1,88%. Realization ranged from 620,83 to 625,08 €/t. The weighted price was 621,68 €/t.

Feed barley was traded at a price of 239,83 €/t.

Russian urea, 25/1, was traded at 880,00 €/t, while contracts for package 500/1 were concluded from 860,00 to 875,00 €/t. There was a greater interest in buying nitrogen fertilizers.

Russian an, package 25/1, was traded at 670,00 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #47 (29.11.-03.12.)

In the first week of December, at Produktna berza, cereals prices decreased. Total turnover was 4.900 tons of commodities (+72,29%), while a financial value amounted to 1.555.184,64 € (+44,49%).

After the continued price rise in the previous period, wheat marked a bearish trend. Among this situation, wheat was the most traded commodity with a total amount of 4.050 tons. The contracts were realized from 272,16 to 280,66 €/t. The weighted price was 276,24 €/t, which is a decrease of 1,25%. Among the domestic market, this price trend was noticed in international markets.

In the corn market, the activity of the commodity exchange participants was diminished. The price on the domestic market was not acceptable for buyers at FOB, which had an impact on demand. The supply, depending on delivery, was in the price range from 221,13 to 229,63 €/t, which indicates a possible price fall. Corn with higher moisture, at a parity CPT, was traded at a price of 223,68 €/t.

At the beginning of the week, the soybean supply was absent. Intensive demand had an impact on the upward trend of this oilseed. The contracts were concluded at a single price of 633,62 €/t, which is at the same time the weighted price. Domestic processors and traders were dominant buyers. However, at the end of the week, the market calmed down. The supply at a lower price level did not result in a contract conclusion. Statistically, compared to the previous period, the price was higher by 1,02%.

Feed barley was traded at a price of 240,69 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #46 (22.11.-26.11.)

Wheat price maximum and soybean price increase marked last week at Produktna berza. Total turnover was 8.875 tons, while financial value amounted to 2.674.558,98 €.

Augmented wheat demand led to the increase and record prices on the commodity exchange market. This week’s session for wheat on Euronext was marked by significant amplitudes and new highs. Movements on the international market, the world’s trend and price impact, as well as factors on the domestic market, led to that this cereal was the most sought-after commodity on Produktna berza, with a total turnover of 8.200 tons. Contracts for prompt delivery at FCA parity were realized at a price range from 266,20 to 272,15 €/t. The contract at CPT parity, for wheat with higher quality (12% protein, gluten 26, specific mass 82kg) was realized at a price of 282,36 €/t, with delivery until 15th January 2022. The weighted price was 271,56 €/t. Compared with the last data; the price rose by 2,89%.

The beginning of the week brought decreased corn demand, while the supply was higher. At the end of the week, interest was bigger, so this cereal was realized at CPT parity, with delivery until the end of December at 211,77 €/t.

The downward soybean trend observed in the past month has not continued this week. The market was more active compared to the previous period when this oilseed was a low-demand commodity. At FCA parity, contracts were concluded at 617,45 to 625,10 €/t. The average trading price was 620,00 €/t. Compared to the previous week, the price was higher by 1,12%.

In oilseeds, on the European market, despite the weakening of crude oil since the beginning of the week, oil prices have risen. In Chicago, soybean prices are now at levels similar to the maximum from the end of September, completely neutralizing the decrease that was recently recorded.

Feed barley was traded at the price of 242,39 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #45 (15.11.-19.11.)

Last week at Produktna berza was marked by a price increase of soybean and wheat. Total turnover was 2.844 tons of commodities, while financial value was 1.076.361,52 €.

At the very beginning of the week, wheat had a bullish trend. The contracts were concluded in the price range from 276,41 to 280,66 €/t. The weighted price was 279,73 €/t, which is an increase of 3,03% compared with last week. At the end of the week, the market was calming and demand was absent.  Apart from the domestic market, in the first half of the week, new price highs were also recorded at Euronext. In addition to many factors, in order to justify this growth, there were fears about the quality of Australian wheat, which was affected by rains at harvest time. Also, floods in Canada have caused logistical difficulties, especially in ports. Wheat prices in the Black Sea basin have advanced following other international markets.

In the corn market without significant price changes. Participants on the commodity exchange market were more active in purchasing this cereal with the clause “free stock” in December. Despite this circumstance, the price did not change significantly compared to the previous week. Contracts were concluded at a price of 229,63 €/t, with takeover until 31st December. Corn with an increased percentage of moisture was traded from 208,37 to 214,33 €/t.

The absence of a more intensive supply of soybean was noticeable on the domestic market, which influenced this oilseed to record a growth of 1,16%. For the second week in a row, the market continued to be active. On the demand side, more activity was shown by domestic processors and traders. Contracts were realized in a price range from 620,86 to 633,62 €/t. The weighted price was 627,24 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #45 (15.11.-19.11.)

Wheat price maximum and soybean price increase marked last week at Produktna berza. Total turnover was 8.875 tons, while financial value amounted to 2.674.558,98 €.

Augmented wheat demand led to the increase and record prices on the commodity exchange market. This week’s session for wheat on Euronext was marked by significant amplitudes and new highs. Movements on the international market, the world’s trend and price impact, as well as factors on the domestic market, led to that this cereal was the most sought-after commodity on Produktna berza, with a total turnover of 8.200 tons. Contracts for prompt delivery at FCA parity were realized at a price range from 266,20 to 272,15 €/t. The contract at CPT parity, for wheat with higher quality (12% protein, gluten 26, specific mass 82kg) was realized at a price of 282,36 €/t, with delivery until 15th January 2022. The weighted price was 271,56 €/t. Compared with the last data; the price rose by 2,89%.

The beginning of the week brought decreased corn demand, while the supply was higher. At the end of the week, interest was bigger, so this cereal was realized at CPT parity, with delivery until the end of December at 211,77 €/t.

The downward soybean trend observed in the past month has not continued this week. The market was more active compared to the previous period when this oilseed was a low-demand commodity. At FCA parity, contracts were concluded at 617,45 to 625,10 €/t. The average trading price was 620,00 €/t. Compared to the previous week, the price was higher by 1,12%.

In oilseeds, on the European market, despite the weakening of crude oil since the beginning of the week, oil prices have risen. In Chicago, soybean prices are now at levels similar to the maximum from the end of September, completely neutralizing the decrease that was recently recorded.

Feed barley was traded at the price of 242,39 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #44 (08.11.-12.11.)

The stable price level of wheat, falling prices of corn and soybean were actual on the market of primary agricultural products at Produktna berza. Total turnover was 3.566 tons (-24,14%), while financial value was 1.111.863,35 €.

Wheat was the most traded commodity, with a total quantity of 2.800 tons. At the beginning of the week, the Government of the Republic of Serbia, at the suggestion of the Ministry of Trade, has adopted the Decree on obligatory production and trade of T-500 flour bread, which limits the retail price of this type of bread to a maximum 0,39 € in the next six months, with possible extensions. An intervention is planned from commodity reserves of 30.000 tons of flour. This decision had a calming effect on the price in the short term. Contracts at FCA parity were concluded at a price of 263,65 €/t with the clause “free stock” until 31st December, or 273,00 €/t at CPT parity with delivery from 15th to 31st January 2022. According to the USDA report, the world’s final stocks of this cereal have been adjusted to lower than last month’s estimate (from 276,5 million tons to 275,8 million tons). In this context, wheat on Euronext recorded growth, which also affected the price on the domestic market. Demand was more intense, and at the end of the week, the contract was concluded at a price level of 267,90 €/t with a takeover by 31st December. The weighted price was 263,90 €/t.

Unlike the previous week, where buying corn was more intense, a decreased activity of commodity exchange participants was marked this week. Only two contracts were concluded for prompt delivery at a price of 223,67 €/t, which is at the same time the weighted price. At the end of the week, supplies at the same price level, with the clause “free stock”, did not reply to the demand, which suggests the fall of the price. Corn with increased moisture up to 18% was traded at a price of 202,41 €/t.

Soybean continued with a bearish trend. Absent demand still causes the price fall, which has been noticed in the last month. Contracts at FCA parity were concluded in price range from 612,34 to 614,89 €/t, while the contract at CPT parity was realized at a price of 615,74 €/t. Mostly it was traded with quality calculation. The weighted price was 613,11 €/t. In comparison with the last data, the price is lower by 3,02%.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #43 (01.11.-05.11.)

Last week at Produktna berza marked price increase of corn and wheat, while soybean marked negative price trend. Total turnover was 4.700,52 tons of commodities (-31,38%), while financial value was 1.392.387,12 € (-36,99%).

At the beginning of the week, there was a reduced activity of commodity exchange participants in buying corn. However, in the middle of the week, there was a more intensive demand for this cereal, which affected the positive price trend. Purchase contracts were realized in the price range from 221,12 to 225,37 €/t, with a clause “free stock” November/December. Corn with an increased percentage of moisture was traded from 214,32 to 219,42 €/t. The weighted price for SRPS quality was 223,84 €/t, which is an increase of 0,21% compared to the previous comparative period.

Wheat was the most sought-after commodity. In the European market, the wheat price rose at the beginning of the week, with international demand as the main stimulus. At Euronext, such a price level has not been seen since 2008. In the American market, in Chicago, the price reached a nine-year maximum. The price trend was correlated with movements on the domestic market, where price rose by 2,78%. Contracts for parity FCA were concluded in the price range from 263,64 to 267,90 €/t, or 269,60 €/t for parity CPT. The average trading price for this week was 264,92 €/t.

Unlike the cereals, which recorded an increase, soybeans had a bearish price trend of 2,13%. On the domestic market, the absence of more intensive demand for his oilseed was still noticeable. Regardless of this price trend, the offer of larger quantities was missing. Contracts were concluded from 629,34 to 642,10 €/t, with a clear tendency for prices to fall throughout the week. The weighted price was 632,15 €/t.

Feed barley, SRPS quality, was traded at a single price of 239,83 €/t, which is an increase of 3,61%.

What additionally worries agricultural producers are the prices of fertilizers. One of the more important news from foreign markets is that from December, Russia plans to introduce six-month quotas on the export of some fertilizers to ensure domestic supply and to limit costs for farmers, because the energy crisis has led to a jump in prices. Due to the increase in the price of gas, production costs increased, and the prices of nitrogen fertilizers in the world increased. That threatens to reduce the yield next year and accelerate the global growth of food prices. In the coming period, it remains for us to closely monitor developments in both foreign and domestic markets.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #41 (18.10.-22.10.)

The stable price level of corn, the fall in the price of soybeans and the absence of wheat trading marked the last week on the commodity exchange market. The total turnover was 4.800 tons of commodities (-29,31%), while a financial value amounted to 1.471.662,18 €.

Although the largest volume primacy of total turnover on Produktna berza refers to corn, we can state that the market has not yet opened in accordance with the needs of demand. Last week’s harvest was in full swing. However, last Friday’s precipitation affected again the delay. Depending on the quality, contracts for prompt delivery were concluded in the price range from 225,37 to 233,87 €/t. Corn was traded with high moisture and an increased percentage of defective kernels. As in previous weeks, the buyers were domestic processors and traders. The weighted price, for SRPS quality, was 233,87 €/t.

The wheat sowing is in progress. The optimal deadline in our agroecological conditions is in the period from 5th to 25th October. Due to the bad weather conditions at the beginning of October, the agricultural producers could not start sowing in time, which enables normal pre-winter development. Unlike the previous period, where wheat was the dominant and sought-after commodity, during the past week, no contract was realized. The causes above all, are reduced activity of exporters and traders, as well as a large price gap between supply and demand. Depending on the quality parameters, the bids were in the price range from 255,13 to 263,64 €/t, with a clear tendency for the price to fall. At the end of the week, wheat prices also fell on Euronext due to taking profits before the weekend, after the market recorded new highs.

The negative price trend of 1,54% was registered on the soybean market. This is the reason for the buyer’s retreat. After the continued price rise since the beginning of the harvest, the market calmed. At the beginning of the week, contracts at FCA parity were concluded at a price of 680,36 €/t, and at CPT parity 682,06 €/t. At the end of the week, we noticed this oilseed’s augmented supply, while contracts were concluded at 663,35 €/t. The trading was with quality calculation. The weighted price was 668,20 €/t.

At FCA parity, feed barley was traded from 229,62 to 233,02 €/t, while at CPT parity was traded at 236,42 €/t. At the end of the week, demand at a higher price level did not result in a contract conclusion. The weighted price was 231,49 €/t.

The supply of mineral fertilizers remains the main concern of farmers, with the continuous growth of price monitored daily. Contracts for NPK 16:16:16, 25/1, were concluded at a price of 606,80 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #40 (11.10.-15.10.)

Mineral fertilizers price rise, new prices highs in the current economic year were actual on the agricultural market on Produktna berza. Total turnover was 6.790 tonnes of commodities (+30,13%), and financial value was 2.734.070,02 € (+72,68%).

On the soybean market, unlike the previous period where there was a low level of operating commodities due to delays by sellers, which affected the continuous growth of prices, last week there was a more pronounced offer of this oilseed. Earlier, mostly, such a situation led to a bearish price trend and customer withdrawal. Regardless of this circumstance, the demand from domestic processors and traders did not abate, which led to a price increase of 4,11%. Contracts at FCA parity were concluded in the price range from 663,47 to 680,49 €/t, or 684,74 €/t at CPT parity. It was mostly traded with quality calculation. The weighted price was 678,79 €/t.

The corn harvest was interrupted due to bad weather, is expected to continue more intense in the coming days. Increased demand for this cereal is still present. There is no supply of larger quantities. Contracts at FCA parity, for prompt delivery, were concluded in a wide price range from 222,86 to 233,92 €/t, which is an increase of 3,27%. What is important to point out is that there is a problem with the quality of the grain. The percentage of defective kernels is generally increased. The buyer structure consisted of domestic processors and traders.

Wheat marked a new price high. At the beginning of the week, trading was at a price level from 246,68 to 250,93 €/t. At the end of the week, contracts at CPT parity were concluded at 264,54 €/t. The weighted price was 247,61 €/t, which is an increase of 2,15%. Except on the domestic market, this price trend was correlated with the world and regional markets. Although the price is good at the time of sowing, this year’s sowing of wheat is much more expensive than last year due to the increase in the prices of intermediate goods and mineral fertilizers.

The biggest price increase marked mineral fertilizers. On the European and world markets, the jump in oil and gas prices has shaken the market balance, with fears about supply. Prices are constantly rising, which was reflected in the domestic markets. Contracts for NPK 15:15:15, package 25/1, were concluded at a price range from 529,93 €/t to 535,03 €/t at CPT parity, while NPK 16:16:16, package 25/1, was traded at a price of 549,92 €/t. UREA, package 25/1, at CPT parity was sold at a price level of 794,89 €/t. Price changes were monitored daily.

 

Verica Popov, broker

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