Weekly Reports

2022 #23 (13.06.-17.06.)

First contracts for barley crop 2022, corn price increase, wheat price fall, and soybean stable price level were the main events in the previous week on the commodity exchange market. The activity was augmented on the corn market, which had an absolute primacy in trading. The turnover reached 2.150 tons, while the financial value was 667.687,40 €.

On the corn market was noticed a bullish price trend. The biggest supply was for the corn with free stock during July. This cereal was traded from 249,51 to 266,54 €/t, depending on delivery and free stock. At the end of the week, corn demand was at a higher level than concluded. The weighted price was 263,99 €/t, which is an increase of 3,29%. Due to dry and hot weather in the Corn belt, corn prices in Chicago also rise.

An extremely quiet week at the wheat market. This cereal continues its downward price trend this week as well. This price movement was recorded due to reduced activity in the market, both on the demand side and on the supply side. At the beginning of the week, the supply was slightly higher, so as the week progressed, it became smaller. Due to the noticeably low demand, only 50 tons of this grain were traded this week at a price of 332,11 €/t. Compared to the previous week, the price is lower by 0,38%. At the end of the week, activity in this market was completely absent.

Compared to the previous week, the price of soybeans did not change much. At the beginning of the week, this oilseed was traded at 617,39 €/t, with a calculation of quality. For the rest of the week, supply at a higher price level did not meet the demand. Only at the end of the week, the contract was concluded at a slightly higher level compared to the beginning of the week, at 619,09 €/t, with quality calculation. Throughout the week, the interest of customers was extremely low. The weighted price for this week was 618,49 €/t, which is an increase of 0,18%.

The barley harvest has led to greater dynamics in this market. Demand for the new crop increased throughout the week and ranged at different price levels, depending on quality parameters. Contracts were concluded in the price range from 272,50 to 274,63 €/t, for barley with lower quality parameters, while barley with a specific mass of 62kg, was traded at 289,53 €/t. Although the harvest is in progress, the supply of this cereal is small.

Sunflower meal was traded at 306,56 €/t.

 

Anja Jakšić, Produktna berza

2022 #22 (06.06.-10.06.)

The second week in a row, lower activity was noted. All primary agricultural products marked negative price trends. The price of corn was the lowest in the last three months, while soybean price was on the level from the end of 2021. On the international market, uncertainty because of the conflict in Ukraine increases, which has impacted the domestic market. During this week 1.740 tons were traded, while financial value amounted to 631.164,50 €.

The biggest drop is recorded in corn. At the beginning of the week, corn was traded at 264,00 €/t. However, due to insufficient demand, the price had a downward trend. At the end of the week, contracts were concluded in the price range from 251,23 to 252,93 €/t. On the last day, there was a noticeable increase in demand for corn, at lower prices than concluded, while on the other hand, the supply was very weak and at higher levels. The weighted price was 255,57 €/t, which is a decrease of 8,00%.

This week, the price of wheat continued to fall. From the very beginning of the week, the price had a negative tendency. Insufficient activity by buyers has led to lower trading volumes. At the beginning of the week, contracts were realized at 340,64 €/t, while the concluded price at the end of the week was 332,13 €/t. The demand for wheat was almost non-existent at the end of the week, while the supply was at a slightly higher price level than the realized ones. The weighted price was 333,41 €/t, which is a decrease of 7,84%.

On the soybean market, since the end of May, the lower activity of buyers and sellers was noted. Lack of interest in buying and smaller supply led to the negative price trend. Contracts were realized at 617,42 €/t, which is also the weighted price. In comparison with the previous week, the price is lower by 5,03%.

Sunflower meal was traded at 315,10 €/t. At the end of the week, supply was on the lower level at 310,84 €/t.

 

Anja Jakšić, Produktna berza

2022 #21 (30.05.-03.06.)

Lower activity of participants, especially in demand, has led to a downward price trend. There was also a reduced trading volume, which this week reached 1.850 tons (-64,76%) while financial value was 740.214,10 €.

As in the previous week, on the corn market was noticed a higher supply compared to demand. At the beginning of the week, contracts were concluded at a price of 279,29 €/t. As the week went by, the low interest of buyers led to a drop in prices, and at the end of the week, a contract was concluded at 272,48 €/t. The weighted price was 277,76 €/t, which is a price fall of 3,73%.

After a period of growth, wheat recorded a drop in price this week. Reduced buyer activity impacted a negative price trend. During this week, the news from the world market about the negotiations between Russia and the United Nations on the permission to export commodities from the Black Sea basin influenced the downward trend in the world commodity exchanges, which was reflected in the domestic market. Contracts for wheat were concluded from 357,63 to 361,89 €/t. At the end of the week, the supply was at an even lower price level than the realized ones. The weighted price was 361,72 €/t, which is a drop of 1,88%.

The activity in soybean market continued to be weak. Very low supply, but also even weaker interest from buyers led to a negative price movement. At the beginning of the week, contracts were realized from 647,14 to 653,10 €/t. During the week, supply on a higher level than realized did not meet demand. The weighted price for this week was 650,04 €/t. which is a decrease of 3,36%.

Feed barley, crop 2021, was traded at a price of 326,13 €/t.

Sunflower meal, with 33% protein, was traded at 326,13 €/t. At the end of the week, the supply was at a lower price level.

 

Anja Jakšić, Produktna berza

2022 #20 (23.05.-27.05.)

The increase in the price of cereals and the absence of soybean from the trade, marked the week behind us on the commodity exchange market. A greater supply of all primary agricultural products continued. A total of 5.250 tons were traded, with a financial value of 1.815.752,78 €.

From the very beginning of the week, a higher supply was noticeable on the corn market. The sellers were at a higher price level compared to the previous week, so corn supply ranged from 285,87 to 290,97 €/t. At the end of the week, the supply of 289,27 €/t did not meet with adequate demand. At the FCA parity, contracts for corn were concluded in the price range from 282,47 to 289,27 €/t. Corn with a higher percentage of moisture was traded from 282,47 to 285,02 €/t. The weighted price for this week was 288,25 €/t, which is an increase of 3,26%.

After a period of greater activity, for the second week in a row, the wheat market was calmer. There is a noticeable increase in supply compared to demand. At the end of the week, the demand for the wheat crop 2021 was absent, while the demand for the new crop was at 340,32 €/t. Contracts were concluded from 357,34 to 374,35 €/t. The weighted price was 368,31 €/t. Despite the increased supply, this cereal recorded a price increase of 6,09%.

Compared to the previous week, when the soybean market was more active, during this week, there was no trade in this oilseed. At the beginning of the week, the supply was at the same price level as the week before, but there was an obvious lack of demand. In the middle of the week, buyers and sellers were at different price levels, so there was no realization of the contract. Demand for soybean was at the price of 650,86 €/t, but the supply was missing, which indicates a drop in the price of this oilseed.

 

Anja Jakšić, Produktna berza

2022 #19 (16.05.-20.05.)

In the week behind us, there was a noticeable lower activity of participants on the commodity exchange market. The prices of primary agricultural products continued last week’s trend, and corn and soybean recorded a negative price trend this week, while wheat recorded an increase in prices. A total of 3.450 tons of commodities were traded, while financial value reached 1.296.366,00 €.

Already on the first day of this week, the corn market recorded a downward trend and a larger supply of this cereal. Supply at higher price levels of 282,58 €/t, did not result in the conclusion of the contract. At the beginning of the week, contracts at FCA parity were concluded in the price range from 276,62 to 280,88 €/t. Corn at the parity of the CPT port was traded at a price of 285,98 €/t. The demand for corn with a higher percentage of moisture was also noticeable, and the contracts were realized in the price range from 274,07 to 276,62 €/t. In the middle of the week, due to greater activity on the market, there is a slight increase in the price of this grain, and corn was traded at 280,88 €/t. The weighted price for this week is 279,26 €/t, which is a decrease of 1,56% compared to last week.

Unlike the previous week, when wheat was traded the most, this week brought less activity in this market. Wheat supply at the very beginning of the week was weak and at higher price levels than demand. The news that India has banned the wheat export, due to the reduction of drought-weighted production, has led to a jump in prices in foreign markets. However, in the domestic market, there was lower activity on both the supply and demand sides. However, at the end of the week, there is more interest in buying this cereal, which led to a new rise in prices. The contracts were realized in the price range from 342,16 to 357,48 €/t. The weighted price was 347,27 €/t, which is an increase of 1,54%.

On the other hand, the soybean market recorded higher activity compared to the previous week. Although in the middle of the week there was a calming of the market and reduced demand, but also the supply of this oilseed, at the end of the week there was still more activity of participants. The contracts were concluded at a price of 672,40 €/t, which is also this week’s weighted price. Soybean was traded with and without quality calculation. Compared to the previous week, the price of soybeans decreased by 1,45%.

Rapeseed supply ranged from 820,00 to 835,00 €/t, while demand was at a lower price level from 770,00 to 790,00 €/t.

 

Anja Jakšić, Produktna berza

2022 #18 (09.05.-13.05.)

A much higher supply of all primary agricultural products was recorded throughout the week on the commodity exchange market. Wheat was recording a price rise and a new price maximum, while on the other hand, the prices of corn and soybean were falling. Total turnover was 4.380 tons of commodities, and financial value amounted to 1.906.751,73 €.

On the corn market, an increased supply was noticeable from the beginning of the week, while buyers were less interested in buying. At the beginning of the week, the supply ranged from 286,58 to 293,38 €/t, and due to lower demand, there was a negative price trend. At the end of the week, the corn price was lower, from 278,93 to 280,63 €/t. Contracts were concluded in the price range from 280,63 to 289,13 €/t. The weighted price was 283,43 €/t, which is a price drop of 1,98%, compared to last week. Corn with an increased percentage of moisture was traded from 282,33 to 286,58 €/t.

This week, wheat had the largest share in trading on Produktna berza. Increased activity on this market, compared to the previous period, had led to a new price record for this grain. The trading started at the price of 335,90 €/t, and as the week went by the supply reached a higher price level. The highest offered price was 348,66 €/t, however, at this price level, there was no realized contract. At the end of the week, the realized contracts reached the price of 344,41 €/t, which is the highest price for wheat crop 2021. Compared to the last week, this cereal recorded a price increase of 1,14%. This week’s weight price was 341,77 €/t.

On the other hand, unlike the cereals market, the soybean market was declining as the week went by. At the beginning of the week, soybeans were traded at a price of 697,32 €/t, while the supply reached higher price levels. However, demand at a much lower price level than supply indicated a downward trend in this oilseed price. Contracts were concluded at a lower price level compared to the beginning of the week from 671,81 to 680,31 €/t. Soybeans at parity CPT were traded at 703,27 €/t. At the very end of the week, on soybean market was noted complete passivity. The weighted price was 681,67 €/t, which indicated a negative trend -4,46%, compared to the last week.

 

Anja Jakšić, Produktna berza

2022 #17 (04.05.-06.05.)

This week on Produktna berza was marked by a new price high in wheat, a stable price level in corn and a price decrease in soybean. Total turnover was 3.048 tons, while financial value amounted to 1.379.823,65 €.

Wheat demand led to a price increase and a new high, on the first day. At the extraordinary session of the Government, on 30th April, a decision was made to increase the May quota for wheat from 150.000 tons to 211.458 tons, and the quota for wheat flour to 22.340 tons, which influenced the domestic market to be more active. Unlike the previous period where the structure of buyers consisted mainly of domestic processors and traders, exporters also showed interest in buying this grain. Depending on the quality parameters, contracts were concluded in the price range from 335,79 to 340,04 €/t. The weighted price was 337,75 €/t. Compared to the data from the previous week, wheat recorded an upward trend of 3,83%. On the last day of this working week, the market was calmer, and the supplies at price level from 335,79 to 344,29 €/t did not result in a contract conclusion.

On the corn market, there has not been a lot of change compared to the week before. All contracts were realized at 289,04 €/t, which is also the weighted price. The price changed by +0,27%. Apart from domestic processors and traders, the buyers were exporters, which led to a more active market.

After the continued price rise, soybean had a price correction. The FCA parity contracts were concluded from 714,09 to 712,39 €/t, with a clear downward trend. At parity CPT, this commodity was traded at 718,34 €/t. This price trend was also recorded at the beginning of May of the previous year when this oilseed reached a historical price maximum (726,84 €/t). After that, prices were dropped and a complete absence of demand. It remains for us to follow further price movements, considering that in the same period as in the previous year we have a similar price trend. At the very end of the week, it brings a larger supply, while passivity was present on the demand side. The weighted price was 713,24 €/t, which is a decrease of 0,11% compared to the previous week.

Russian urea, 500/1, was traded at 797,63 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2022 #16 (25.04. – 29.04.)

On the commodity market, the prices maintained a high price level and tended to grow with wheat being the most bullish trend at 6,08%. Wheat recorded new price highs, while corn repeated the same price from March, the period just before the decision to ban export was made. The most important news from Produktna berza is the contract realization for the wheat crop 2022. The total turnover was 4.865 tons, while financial value amounted to 1.958.840,00 €.

At the beginning of the week, there was passivity on the wheat market. Supplies at the price level from 314,42 to 322,92 €/t did not result in the contract conclusion. However, the very end of the week brought more intensive demand, which resulted in a price rise. Contracts for the wheat crop 2021 were concluded from 324,62 to 327,17 €/t, for prompt delivery. Domestic processors were the main buyers. The weighted price for this week was 325,21 €/t, which is an increase of 6,08%. The harvest of the new crop is expected at the end of June, and the interest in buying this grain is increasing. The forward contract for wheat crop 2022, at parity FCA and delivery in July was realized at the price level of 318,67 €/t.

The corn market has been turbulent over the past week. As with wheat, the first working day brought passivity and in the middle of the week, increased demand led to an increase in prices. Contracts were concluded in the price range from 285,53 to 288,93 €/t, with the delivery of commodities during May. Corn with increased moisture was traded from 277,03 to 280,43€/t. The weighted price was 288,16 €/t, which is a change of +1,62%. Regardless of the fact that corn is statistically recording an increase in the price, the interest of exporters in buying this grain is almost non-existent and the supply is still higher than the demand. The Government’s decision to regulate exports with monthly quotas of 150.000 tons for corn instead of a temporary ban did not significantly affect the market. Of course, that is a small step forward, but it is not enough for the market to be as active as before the adoption of the ban measures in March.

The growing trend of soybean prices continued this week as well. Contracts at FCA parity were concluded at a price of 713,82 €/t. Compared to the data from the previous week, a slight increase of 0,29% was recorded. The very end of the week brings a complete absence of demand and the offered quantities at the realized price level did not result in the conclusion of a new contract.

Feed flour, 30/1, was traded at a price of 220,94 €/t.

Russian urea, 500/1, was traded at a price of 830,00 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2022 #15 (18.04.-21.04.)

The most important news from the Commodity Exchange last week is the introduction of quotas for the export of wheat, corn, flour and refined sunflower oil, which will be applied from the beginning of May and will be valid on a monthly basis. The shortened workweek between the two Easter holidays brought an increase in the prices of primary agricultural products. The total turnover for this week is 6,280 tons, whose financial value is 2,079,050.00 €.

The price of corn ranged from 274,50 to 276,20 €/t, for goods with moisture up to 16%, while standard quality corn was traded in the price range from 280,45 to 286,40 €/t, depending on parity and pick-up speed. One can certainly speak of a clear upward price trend for this cereal. The weighted price was 283,60 €/t, which is a 1.11% increase compared to the previous week.

In wheat, the growth in demand was even more pronounced. At the beginning of the week, the concluded price ranged from 301,70 €/t, to 322,94 €/t at the very end of the week. The weighted price for this week is 306,63 €/t, which is an increase of 0.40% compared to the previous comparative data.

Soybeans were traded at a price of 711,75 €/t, which is this week’s weighted price. Compared to the previous comparative data, this oilseed has risen in price by 0.81%. At the end of the week, the demand at the price of 713,87 €/t did not lead to the conclusion of a contract due to the restraint of the sellers.

Of the other goods, the mineral fertilizer NPK 15:15:15 was sold at the price of 822,49 €/t.

Field data show that soybeans and sunflowers will be more represented in the structure of spring sowing this year, while sowing of corn is expected in smaller areas.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2022 #14 (11.04.-15.04.)

During this week, an upward trend in all primary agricultural products was recorded. The price of soybeans has reached a new price maximum in the current economic year, and the first futures contract for this oilseed has been concluded. The total turnover through the Commodity Exchange amounted to 3,885 tons (+135.46%), whose financial value amounted to 163,336,910.00 dinars (+115.22%).

 

The beginning of spring sowing in Serbia is in progress. Considering that the previous cold days of April did not go to the advantage of agricultural producers, which prevented the timely sowing, we can say that the spring sowing in 2022 began at the optimal time. What additionally worries agricultural producers is the surface moisture of the land, which is significantly lower than a year earlier. Sowing of primary agricultural products per hectare will be more expensive this spring, especially for corn, due to the high prices of raw materials. On the other hand, sowing is marked by the high price of cereals and oilseeds on the domestic market.

 

Soybeans recorded a positive price trend compared to the previous week. Stock exchange contracts were concluded in the price range from 705.32 to 709.57 €/t. Due to the restraint of sellers, a weak offer was recorded. Unlike the previous period, where the structure of buyers consisted of domestic processors and traders, this week, exporters also showed interest in buying this oilseed. The weighted price is 706.00 €/t, which is a new price maximum in the current economic year. Compared to the previous comparative data, soybeans increased in price by 0.91%. This price level was also recorded in the previous year in April when this oil plant had a strong increase in prices, which was monitored even on a daily basis. Statistically, from the beginning to the middle of April last year, it recorded a price increase of 17.06%, while for the same period this year the growth is 1.83%. Regardless of the fact that soybeans recorded price oscillations in the previous period, it remains to be seen whether the price trend of the crop 2021 will reach the historical maximum of the crop 2020 price of 726.56 €/t, which is registered on the commodity market.

The first term offer of soybeans in 2022 in the amount of 150 tons, with the delivery of goods from September 15 to October 5, was realized at a price level of 640.00 €/t. Given that the price is above expectations, it is now up to the farmers to decide whether to sell part of the future crop.

The corn market is without significant changes compared to the previous period. Demand for this cereal is still low. The reason for this circumstance is the temporary export ban, which has been in force since March 10. Domestic processors and traders are on the side of buyers, while exporters are not interested in new sales contracts. Corn for prompt delivery was traded at a single price of 280.43 €/t, which is also this week’s weighted price and a slight increase of 0.79%. Contracts for this grain with a high percentage of moisture were realized in the price range from 270.23 to 271.93 €/t.

In the case of wheat, passivity on the part of buyers was noticed until Wednesday. There was a noticeable increase in supply compared to demand. In the middle of the week, the market was more active, and contracts, depending on the quality parameters, were concluded at a price level of 301.67 to 305.92 €/t. The weighted price for this week is 305.33 €/t. Compared to the data from the previous week, this cereal rose by 2.41%. Although statistically the highest price increase was recorded for this cereal, we can state that there is still no greater interest in buying due to the ban on the export of wheat and flour.

Sunflower meal with 33% protein, was sold for 369.65 €/t, which indicates a price drop. The contract for fodder flour, packing 30/1, was realized for 186.95 €/t.

Depending on the weather, the harvest of a new crop of oilseed rape is expected to begin in two months.

The forward demand for this oilseed ranged from 800.00 to 810.00 €/t. However, the offer is still missing.

 

Verica Popov, broker

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