2022 #8 (28.02.-04.03.)

Last week at Produktna berza was marked by a continued price rise, firstly of corn, then wheat and nitrogen fertilizers. The explanation could be found in the geopolitical situation, the war state in Ukraine. Considering that the only port on the Black Sea that is currently available is Constanta, this increase in prices is not surprising. A total of 5.706 tons were traded, with a financial value of 2.065.192,00 €.

During the past week, this cereal was traded in the price range from 250,81 to 284,82 €/t, at FCA parity, with a clear upward price trend, which is evidenced by the fact that the price increase was 13,56%. What is the demand for corn, shows the fact that in the same period was traded corn with moisture from 15% to 16% in the price range from 241,46 to 280,57 €/t, at parity FCA. Any forecasts about further movements of the corn price are completely irrelevant, considering that they exclusively depend, on further developments in Ukraine, at this moment. The weighted price for this week was 273,60 €/t, which represents an increase of 13,31%, compared to the previous week.

The wheat market behaved, similar to the corn market. At FCA parity, the closed prices ranged from 267,82 to 297,57 €/t, with a clear upward weekly trend. The reasons for such movements on the wheat market are completely in line with the movements on the corn market (the war in Ukraine). Any further forecasts in which direction the price will move would be unserious. These days, data have been published on the percentage of Russian and Ukrainian wheat in total world production. Given that this percentage is over 25%, it remains to be seen what world trade will look like in the coming period. This week’s weighted price of wheat was 288,65 €/t, which is 9.51% more than last week’s price.

In Serbia, the soybean market was completely opposite to the corn and wheat market. In the past week, only one sales contract was concluded at 646,16 €/t, at CPT parity. It is interesting to point out that the price of soybean on Chicago’s commodity exchange has mostly increased daily.

Considering that the production of fertilizers depends on the price of energy, it is not surprising that this week’s turnover for UREA ranged from 790,00 to 865,00 €/t, and for KAN from 630,00 to 700,00 €/t. The price trend for nitrogen fertilizers coincides with the price trend for wheat and corn.


Verica Popov, broker

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