Weekly Reports

2021 #37 (20.09.-24.09.)

The augmented activity of commodity exchange participants and rising prices of all cereals and oilseeds were current characteristics of the market scene of primary agricultural products in the past week. The total turnover amounted to 3.274 tons of goods, which financial value amounted to 1.175.265,61 €.

Due to bad weather conditions, soybean harvest is delayed. Low supply has brought to high price oscillation during the last week. Since the beginning of the harvest, this oilseed has started with continued growth, which is also marked at the same period last year. On the first day, a contract was concluded at the price of 603,85 €/t, while at the end of the week, the registered price was 637,87 €/t. The weighted price was 627,92 €/t, which represents an increase of 5,48% in comparison with previous data, and we can conclude that soybean is still at a high market position.

Unlike the previous week, where the supply of corn crop 2020 was missed on Produktna berza, this week has brought changes in the context of this cereal intensive supply. The bullish trend of +3,49% was marked, due to the higher demand from domestic processors and exporters. Contracts for both crops (2020 and 2021) were concluded at the same price range from 210,07 to 212,62 €/t with prompt delivery. In the next period we are expecting a more intensive corn harvest, and therefore a higher supply of crop 2021. The weighted price was 206,50 €/t. Statistically, when we compare this price with the same period last year (133,53 €/t), this cereal marked an increase of 58,00%.

In the middle of the week, there was an intensive demand on the wheat market by domestic processors, exporters and traders, which led to a positive price trend of 2,33%. This price trend was completely correlated with developments in the reference world and regional markets. Depending on the quality parameters and the clause “free stock”, contracts were concluded from 221,13 to 229,63 €/t. The average trading price in the last week was 224,53 €/t.

Sunflower harvest is almost done. Although the purchase is nearing the end, interest in the purchase is still present. Trading on the FCA parity was at the price level of 493,29 €/t, while this oilseed on the CPT parity was paid 501,79 €/t. Currently, sunflower price has an upward trend and we cannot predict in detail how it will move in the coming period. The price is growing both in our country and in the region and the world.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #36 (13.09.-17.09.)

The first contract for a corn new crop, the rise in oilseeds price and the fall of wheat price, marked the past week on the commodity exchange market. The total turnover for this week at Produktna berza amounted to 2.005 tons of goods, which financial value amounted to 682.604,90€.

The harvest of early maize hybrids began in some locations and crop 2021 appeared in the offer from 204,14 to 214,35 €/t. The first contract was concluded at a price level of 204,14 €/t, for prompt delivery, which is also this week’s weighted price. Unlike the previous year, where trading of the new crop had started in mid-August due to small stocks on the market and lack of supply, the beginning of this year’s harvest is starting at the optimal time. Statistically, when we compare the prices with the same period last year (165,87€/t), the price is higher by 23,08%. Last week, the supply of the old crop was absent through Produktna berza, which is unusual. We can state that the activity of commodity exchange participants for the purchase of this grain has decreased.

The price of the soybean crop 2021 had a bullish trend. The contracts were realized in the price range from 586,91 to 603,92 €/t, with a tendency to increase the price. We see the reason in the weak supply, there is a small amount of operation goods due to the restraint of sellers. Demand was more intense than in the previous period, when the market was much calmer. The weighted price was 595,41 €/t.

The sunflower harvest is coming to an end. Due to the increased demand, the price increased. Trading on FCA parity was at the price level from 491,64 to 493,34 €/t, while this oilseed on parity CPT was paid 495,89 €/t. Given the growth of prices on foreign markets, the price of this oilseed is moving in a positive direction.

Wheat, the second week in a row marked a stable price level. This cereal took absolute quantitative primacy in trading, and trading was in the price range from 217,75 to 220,30 €/t with the clause “free stock” September/October. The structure of customers was dominated by exporters and traders, while there was no demand from domestic processors. The average trading price in the past week was 219,54 €/t, which is 0,76% lower than the previous comparative data.

A soybean meal with 44% protein was traded at a price of 612,43€/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #35 (06.09.-10.09.)

First contracts for soybean new crop, wheat price increase and corn fall, marked last week at Produktna berza. Total turnover was 5.350 tons of commodities (+87,72%) and financial value was 1.604.603,36 € (+69,07%).

Soybean harvest has begun. According to information from agricultural producers, yields are as low as expected. The precipitation deficit since the beginning of sowing, as well as high temperatures during the last months, has had a negative impact on the quality of the grain. The first contracts of the new crop with prompt delivery were concluded at a price level of 595,42 €/t, which is also this week’s weighted price. Such a high price level was expected, considering that the last contract of last year’s crop was concluded at a price of 680,48 €/t. Statistically, when we compare the prices with the same period last year (340,24 €/t), this oilseed price is higher by 75%.

Unlike the previous week, where the demand for corn was more notable, this week the market calmed down. The increased supply has led to this cereal noticing a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, contracts were concluded at the level of 218,60 €/t, and on the last day, the price of 212,65 €/t was registered. The weighted price was 217,50 €/t, which is a decrease of 1,08%.

Wheat has taken primacy in trading on the commodity market. At the beginning of the week, the contracts were realized in the price range from 221,16 €/t to 231,36 €/t (protein min 14%, gluten 30, specific mass 80 kg). Such a large price range was mostly influenced by the quality parameters of this cereal. Although at the end of the week there was a drop in the price to the level of 216,90 €/t, statistically compared to the previous data, an increase of 4,42% was recorded.

Sunflower has maintained a stable price level. Contracts at CPT parity were concluded in the price range from 480,00 to 485,00 €/t.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #34 (30.08.-03.09.)

In the first week of September, prices of all primary agricultural products increased. It was the most noticeable in soybean of as much as 11,62%. The total turnover amounted to 2.850 tons of commodities, which financial value amounted to 98.458,08 €.

Wheat was the most sought-after on the commodity market. As the price maximum since the beginning of the harvest from the previous week has moved the criteria and expectations of sellers, the lack of supply and increased demand has led to wheat having a bullish trend on the domestic market. The contracts were concluded in the price range from 187,90 to 195,63 €/t. The weighted price was 192,46 €/t, which is an increase of 3,07% compared to the previous comparative figure. We can state that the wheat price is again approaching the corn price. What is unusual is that wheat has been at a lower price level than corn for six months now.

For the second week in a row, corn recorded a positive price trend. At the beginning of the week, the registered price was 198,72€/t, while on the last day it was 202,59 €/t. The average trading price for this week was 199,88 €/t, which represents a growth of this cereal price of 2,74%. Forward demand for corn crop 2021 at the price of 181,71 €/t did not adequately respond to the offer that has been missing for a long time through Produktna berza.

There have been big changes in the soybean market. Contracts were concluded in the price range from 595,40 to 618,60 €/t. Demand for this oilseed is expressed by domestic processors and traders. The uncertainty of the quality and yield of the new crop, the absence of supply from last year’s crop are the factors that led to this oilseed growth of 11,62% compared to the last registered price. The weighted price was 612,80 €/t.

Weather conditions delayed the sunflower harvest. All sales contracts were concluded at a price of 473,00 €/t. Compared to the previous week, a slight increase of 0,23% was recorded.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #33 (23.08.-27.08.)

The first contracts for a sunflower new crop with prompt delivery and rising prices of primary agricultural products, marked a week behind us on the organized commodity exchange market. The total turnover amounted to 2.527 tons of commodities (-34,53%), which financial value amounted to 769.423,75€.

The biggest interest was in buying sunflowers. Weather conditions delayed the harvest of this oilseed. Based on information from the field, operating commodities are scarce due to delays in the seller’s supply. The first contracts for prompt delivery were concluded in the price range from 470,00 to 473,00 €/t. The weighted price was 471,90 €/t. In relation to the same period of the previous year, where the price of 301,96 €/t was registered on Produktna berza, we can state that an increase of 56,28% was recorded.

Last week, wheat was the most sought-after commodity, while this week the domestic market was much calmer. Depending on the parameters of quality and parity, contracts were concluded in the price range from 202,44 to 208,39 €/t. Despite the fact that this cereal was traded poorly, an upward trend of 1,42% was recorded in relation to the previous comparative data. The weighted price was 205,67 €/t.

Corn, like wheat, had a positive price trend. The weak supply of this cereal is noticeable, while demand was more intense day by day. At the beginning of the week, sales contracts at parity FCA were concluded at prices of 212,65 to 214,35 €/t, while corn on the CPT parity was traded in a very narrow price range from 216,05 to 216,90 €/t. On the last day, demand at a higher price level than realized did not result in the conclusion of the contract. The average trading price was 214,01 €/t, which is an increase of 1,20%.

Unlike the previous period when all market factors were the reason for the soybean market to be extremely passive and the price to fall, the situation in the past week has changed significantly in terms of more conspicuous demand for this oilseed and rising prices. Soybeans were traded at the price of 603,92 €/t. The lack of supply on the commodity exchange market has led to the fact that the demand from domestic processors and traders at the end of the week was at the price level of 612,42 €/t.

Feed barley was traded from 185,43 to 187,13 €/t, which represents a price increase of 1,94%.

 

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #32 (16.08.-20.08.)

The increased activity of the commodity exchange participants, rising prices of wheat and corn are characteristics that were current on the market scene of primary agricultural products in the past week. The total turnover for this week amounted to 3.860 tons of commodities, which financial value amounted to 876.988,54€.

Wheat was the most sought-after primary agricultural product. At the beginning of the week, the markets grew sharply. The diverse situation observed in France and other European export countries, when it comes to quality, has influenced the fact that this cereal has an upward trend on the domestic market as well. On the first day of the week, sales contracts were concluded at a price of 199,87€/t. Weak supply was the reason for more intensive demand for purchases from exporters, domestic processors and traders. In the middle of the week on Euronext, a sharp drop in the price was recorded, so that at the end of the week, the market showed volatility and thus compensated for the loss. The consequence of this circumstance is a high price of 205,83€/t, which was registered at the end of the week. On the last day, demand at a higher price level than realized did not result in the conclusion of a commodity exchange contract, which indicates a positive trend. The weighted price was 202,77€/t, which is an increase of 10,88% compared to the previous week.

Low corn supply and augmented demand from domestic processors, led to a price increase of 1,90% compared to the previous comparative figure. The contracts at FCA were realized in the price range from 210,08 to 212,63 €/t, while corn on the parity CPT was traded at a price of 216,03 €/t. This week’s weighted price was 211,44 €/t.

Soybean recorded an absence from trading on the commodity exchange market. Demand at parity FCA Vojvodina at a price of 586,87 €/t, SRPS quality with quality calculation, did not find an adequate response to the supply. The new crop harvest is expected to begin in early September. What worries farmers the most are the yields that will be reduced and far from expected due to drought and phytophagous mites that have appeared as a result of high temperatures. There is no forward supply through Produktna berza. Considering that during this current economic year, we had an extreme year from the aspect of price events, then it is justified why there is no forward trading in this oilseed.

Harvest of sunflower crop 2021 has begun. There is a great interest in buying this oilseed. Forward demand ranged from 420,00 to 425,00 €/t.

Feed barley was traded at a price of 178,61 to 183,71 €/t, which is an increase of 4,57%.

Verica Popov, broker

2021 #31 (09.08.-13.08.)

In the week behind us, on Produktna berza, there were no significant price oscillations of corn and soybean, while at the end of the week, the demand for wheat was at higher prices. The total turnover amounted to 2.195 tons, while the financial value amounted to 526.037,00 €. Statistically, the turnover volume is lower by 18,70%, while financial is lower by 15,97%.

When we compare the weighted prices, wheat did not oscillate significantly compared to the previous week. Wheat contracts were concluded at 182,87 €/t, which also represents the weight price, +0,90%. However, at the end of the week, the demand for this grain was around 195,63 €/t, while demand for commodities brought to the port was at the level of 199,89 €/t. The sellers were not interested in selling through the commodity exchange, which indicates a price rise. The USDA report had the greatest impact on the increase in demand at higher prices due to the news of global production, which decreased by 2%, due to lower yields in Russia, Canada, Turkey, Kazakhstan, and the USA. Global consumption is almost unchanged from the previous report. Supplies were reduced by more than 5% compared to the previous forecast and were lowered to the lowest level in 5 years.

At the beginning of the week, the impression was gained that the corn price would rise, trading took place at the level of 207,54 €/t, but during the week, corn had a negative trend. Corn with the CPT buyer clause was traded at 206,69 €/t. Compared to last week’s data, the weighted price remained almost at the same level, -0,60%.

Soybean remained at the same level as in previous weeks. Soybean was traded in a narrow price range from 597,96 to 599,66 €/t. The weighted price was 599,06 €/t, which is a minimum oscillation of -0,09%.

Feed barley was traded at a price of 174,37€/t.

2021 #30 (02.08.-06.08.)

This week on Produktna berza marked wheat price increase, while corn and soybean did not have bigger price oscillation. Total turnover was 2.700 tons, which financial value was 626.076,59€. Statistically, the turnover volume increased by 43,24%, while financial turnover increased by 19,18%.

Increased customer interest in wheat was noticeable at the beginning of the week, which moved the price in a positive direction. Wheat with better quality, with a minimum protein of 13%, was traded at a maximum price of 187,14 €/t, while wheat with poorer parameters was traded in the price range from 178,63 to 180,33€/t. The weighted price was 184,59 €/t, which is an increase of 7,45% compared to the previous week. In the world, in the USA and Canada, spring wheat has failed due to drought. News is also coming from Russia that the yield of spring wheat is worse compared to the previous year.

Unlike wheat, corn had a downward price trend. Contracts for corn were concluded in the price range from 208,41 to 210,96 €/t. Demand during the week was weaker than supply, which resulted in a slight drop in prices. The weighted price was 208,83 €/t, which is a decrease of 1,81% compared to the previous period.

For the soybean market, we can say that it was calm, price oscillations were minimal. Buyers were at last week’s prices, while sellers were restrained. Soybean was traded at a single price of 599,70 €/t, which also represents a weighted price of +0,71%.

2021 #29 (26.07.-30.07.)

Last week on the Commodity Exchange in Novi Sad brought a drop in turnover compared to the previous one. The total turnover amounted to 1,885 tons. Statistically, the volume turnover is lower by 42.31%, and the value turnover by 36.27%.

Unlike the previous week, the volume of wheat and corn turnover equalized. Wheat was traded in the range of 170,12 to 174,38 €/t, with a clear upward price trend. The very end of the week brought increased demand, which led to a rise in prices. This week’s weighted price is 171,74 €/t, which is 0.47% lower than the previous week. The reason for this price movement can be found, among other things, in unfavorable weather conditions, primarily in France, where the harvest will obviously be delayed in certain regions, which will lead to questionable quality, due to the increased amount of precipitation.

Unlike wheat, the price of corn has a clear downward trend. At the beginning of the week, a contract was concluded at a price of 216,91 €/t, and at the end of the week, sales contracts were concluded at a price of 210,95 €/t. The weighted price for this week is 212,65 €/t, which is less by 1.96% compared to the previous period. This price movement is perhaps surprising, compared to the condition of the crops of this cereal in the fields. On foreign stock exchanges, there was an increase in the price of corn compared to the previous week.

The soybean market was completely passive during the week, so that at the very end of the week the contracts were concluded at the price of 595,43 €/t at the FCA parity and 599,68 €/t at the CPT parity. Considering the soybean prices concluded this week, the price drop can be stated in relation to the previous week. The weighted price is 595,43 €/t, which is a decrease of 1.46%.

2021 #27 (12.07.-16.07.)

Unusually weak turnover on Produktna berza in Novi Sad marked the past week. The reason, first of all, we see in the reduced activity of exporters on the commodity market, because the prices on the FOB are not acceptable due to the large price spread between buyers and sellers on the domestic market. The total turnover for this week amounted to 950 tons of commodities, which financial value amounted to 235.785,90€. Compared to the previous comparative period, the volume of turnover is lower by 84,71%, while the financial value of traded commodities is lower by 84,62%.

The export absence and weak demand from domestic processors resulted in a lack of corn demand. The contract was concluded at a single price of 219,46€/t, which is also this week’s weighted price. Compared to the previous period, a decrease of 0,47% was recorded. When we compare this cereal price with the price in the same period last year, the price is 50% higher. In the case of corn, what worries agricultural producers the most is the lack of participation, i.e., reduction of soil moisture reserves. Given all these circumstances, the fear of producers and experts that yield will be reduced and that this year will be very uncertain is justified.

Increased demand for the wheat new crop and supply at a higher level moved the price in a positive direction throughout the week. The contracts were concluded at a price level of 170,12€/t. When we compare this year’s crop and last year’s crop price in the same period, after the harvest, an increase of 8,11% was recorded.

Soybean is absent from trading on Produktna berza. The supply ranged from 625,21 to 629,46€/t, but the realization did not happen. Although the interest in buying by domestic processors and exporters has decreased in the last two months, we can say that this oilseed still has a high price level.

Feed barley, SRPS quality, was traded at a price of 167,57€/t.
Rapeseed had a positive price trend on the foreign market last week. Demand for this oilseed is far lower than in the previous period, which did not affect the price growth on the domestic market. One contract was realized at the parity CPT Bačka, at the price of 515,00€/t.

Verica Popov, broker

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